In a report published by the *Financial Times* on the 13th, it was revealed that global steel production is expected to rise by 3.6% in 2014. Notably, European steel output saw a 2.4% increase this year, marking a recovery after six consecutive years of decline. Meanwhile, China's steel production is projected to grow by 4% compared to the previous year, slightly lower than the 6% growth recorded in 2013. These figures are based on insights from 15 leading steel analysts worldwide, whose forecasts align closely with those of the World Steel Association (WSA).
The WSA estimates that global steel output will climb by 3.5% this year, surpassing last year’s growth of 3.1%. However, China’s steel production growth is expected to be around 3%, lagging behind the global average. John Lichtenstein, head of global metals operations at Accenture, noted that China is gradually shifting its economic model from investment-driven to one focused on services and consumption—a transition that is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
Brian Levich, editor-in-chief of the *British Metal Guide Research*, predicts that new steel capacity will mainly come from emerging markets such as India, the Gulf region, and Latin America in the coming years. This suggests a broader geographic spread of steel production, rather than a concentration in traditional regions.
Matthew De Morgan, CEO of Duferco, the world’s largest steel trading company, commented that while steel production is showing signs of stabilizing, the industry is not yet experiencing strong profitability. He stated that 2014 could be a peak year for output, but the era of rapid growth seen before the financial crisis is still distant. Prices and profit margins remain under pressure, indicating that the sector is still navigating difficult conditions.
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