Today, almost all of the practitioners today do not expect the global PV market to experience unprecedented spurt growth in the coming year. Now that the beginning of the new year is coming, the industry’s view of the PV prospects this year has once again become confused and divided. Recently, representatives of the German PV industry reached an agreement with the government to determine the plan for the accelerated reduction of PV subsidy prices in the middle of 2011 . In the face of the photovoltaic subsidies in the major PV installation countries in Europe will continue to reduce and the expansion of production capacity is intensifying the supply and demand changes, how will this year's PV market structure be interpreted? The industry believes that the weakening of PV module prices in the first quarter will lead to a sharp increase in demand in the second quarter, which will cause prices to rebound in the second half. European countries have cut subsidies . The global PV industry has relied heavily on high subsidies from European countries, especially the German government, to maintain high growth. However, after the outbreak of the financial crisis, many European countries' fiscal deficits have expanded dramatically, and their financial resources are not as good as before, making subsidies to the photovoltaic industry somewhat incapable. Recently, representatives of the German PV industry reached an agreement with the government to determine the plan for the accelerated reduction of PV subsidy prices in the middle of 2011 . Starting from July 2011, the on-grid tariff will be determined by reference to the annual installed capacity based on the PV installations from March to May this year. If the installation volume is less than 2.5GW, the subsidy will be increased by 2.5%; 2.5GW-3.5GW, the subsidy will remain unchanged; 3.5GW-4.5GW, down 3%; 4.5GW-5.5GW, down 6%; 5.5GW-6.5GW , down 9%; if the installation volume is greater than 6.5GW, it is reduced by 12%. The French government announced last month that it will suspend the construction of some PV projects from December 10, 2010 to study whether it should limit the construction of power stations and further reduce the subsidy rate paid to solar power companies. The suspension period will last for three months. In contrast, the Czech government's policy is more stringent, and it proposes a series of penalties for domestic foam-type photovoltaic power plant investment, which includes a 26% “solar tax†and traceability to the income generated from the sale of electricity from photovoltaic power plants. Sexually levy taxes and other measures that have been removed before. In Spain, the market is having a heated debate about whether the government should cut the electricity purchase rate for solar PV power plants. According to the government's intention, the subsidies for new and existing solar power plants will be cut by 30%. In the past, fixed PV systems could provide up to 1753 hours to the grid, while in the next three years only 1250 hours would be allowed. The Spanish government believes that it is reasonable to reduce subsidies in the case of reduced PV cell costs. But investors and analysts believe that this change is a violation of the agreement. A European study pointed out that the Spanish government introduced a plan to guarantee 25 years of subsidies in 2007, and this reduction in subsidies may bring uncertainty to the development of the Spanish clean energy industry. The Spanish Photovoltaic Enterprise Association believes that this will be a heavy blow to companies that have invested billions of dollars based on government subsidies. The association said on its website that cutting subsidies is their biggest concern, and the move will be seen as discriminating against the photovoltaic industry. The industry has a divergence in market prospects. For PV companies, cutting subsidies will naturally affect profits. But one unexpected phenomenon last year was that with the sharp reduction in subsidies in Germany, the amount of PV installations was stimulated and demand increased. Throughout 2010, Germany's solar installed capacity reached a record 10GW, equivalent to the size of 10 large thermal power plants, and in 2009, this figure was only 4GW. Although the subsidy agreement between the German PV industry and the government is much milder than expected, the industry still has differences on the prospects for PV installation this year. Some consulting agencies believe that the German market will continue to grow moderately this year, but some people believe that there is a "solar bubble" in Germany and the world last year. Roland Berger even warned German companies to prepare for "a series of acquisitions and bankruptcies" and expected that only half of Germany's 50 major solar companies could survive the escalating PV price war. Consulting company Monita pointed out that in 2009 and 2010, Germany's PV demand accounted for 40%-50% of the global proportion, and it is more difficult to maintain high-speed growth in the future. “Once Germany has a 13% reduction in PV subsidy price, battery components prices will drop 10% -15%. "another authoritative consulting firm iSuppli claimed that despite the price, demand and government subsidies of rapid change, but in 2011 the global photovoltaic market will continue strong growth in installed capacity is expected to grow 22.6%. “It is expected that demand will be weak in the first quarter of 2011, but will continue to grow strongly throughout 2011.†Henning Wicht, principal analyst for photovoltaic materials and systems at iSuppli, said, “Component prices will weaken at the end of the first quarter. The weak price will lead to a sharp increase in demand in the second quarter. Since then, demand is expected to rise significantly, leading to a rebound in prices in the second half.†German opinion polls show that most support renewable energy generation. Under this circumstance, the German PV market is expected to continue to grow strongly in 2011. Wang Haisheng, an analyst at Everbright Securities , believes that with the reduction of subsidies for “boots†in Germany, the “last train effect†will be repeated after the subsidies were lowered last year. It is expected that there will be a wave of “small climax†in the first quarter and second quarter of 2011. ". The domestic photovoltaic faucet has not changed. China's major PV manufacturers have not taken care of reducing subsidies in overseas markets. In fact, after entering 2011, large orders for wafers that have paved the way for this year's market are still emerging. LDK, the world's largest silicon wafer manufacturer and leading polysilicon producer, recently announced that it will raise its 2011 full-year operating income estimate to 3.5 billion to 3.7 billion US dollars, surpassing its previous revenue of 2.9 billion to 3.3 billion US dollars. The gross profit margin forecast increased to 23.0%-28.0%, and the previously estimated gross profit margin was 22.0%-28.0%. GCL-Poly, Asia's largest polysilicon producer, also announced two consecutive wafer purchase orders. Among them, on January 11, the company signed a supplemental agreement with Changzhou Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) to provide the latter with a total of no less than 7500MW in the next five years. Wafer and silicon products. Just two days later, GCL-Poly announced a similar supplementary agreement with Suzhou Artes Solar Power Technology Co., Ltd., which will provide Artes with a total of 5,200 MW of silicon products in the next five years. In addition, from the reaction of the parties at the 5th World Photovoltaic Energy Conference held at the end of last year, it is generally optimistic about the PV installation this year, and believes that the global solar installed capacity will reach 20.2GW this year. Germany is still the leading PV market and will continue to play an important role in the world, with an installed capacity of 9.5 GW, accounting for half of the global market. The above indications show that Chinese PV companies have not lost confidence in Europe's cuts in subsidies. "We believe that in 2011, the photovoltaic industry will be free from the situation of short supply in 2010, and enter the operating environment of relatively balanced supply and demand in the whole industry." Yan Xiaotong, chairman of Artes Solar Power, told this reporter, "This environment is more conducive to scale. Enterprises and brand enterprises are more conducive to the survival of the fittest in the whole industry.†In his view, in a market that is in short supply, everything can be sold off, but brand enterprises can not reflect the advantages of brand and quality; Then the advantages of large-scale enterprises will be highlighted. “So we are very confident about this year.†He said that this year, companies like Artus will have more opportunities for development. Earlier, Shi Zhengrong, chairman of Suntech Power, also pointed out in an interview with this reporter that the reduction of subsidies in Europe is not entirely a bad thing for Chinese PV companies, because the competitiveness of China's PV products in terms of cost and cost performance will be more prominent with subsidies. .
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