According to data released on the 1st, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in May 2015 was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, above the critical point, indicating a small expansion in the manufacturing sector. On the whole, the PMI index has been for 3 consecutive months...
According to data released on the 1st, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in May 2015 was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, above the critical point, indicating a small expansion in the manufacturing sector. On the whole, the PMI index has remained above the critical point for three consecutive months, and the overall trend is stable.
In terms of scale of enterprises, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.7%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month and continuously above the critical point; the medium-sized enterprises' PMI was 50.4%, which rose for two consecutive months and rose above the critical point for the first time in the year; The PMI was 47.9%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and continues to be in the contraction range.
From the classification index, among the five sub-indices that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index, the new order index and the supplier delivery time index continue to be above the critical point, and the employee index and the raw material inventory index are below the critical point.
Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Research Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed the main features of the manufacturing PMI operation in May: First, the effects of a series of policy measures issued by the Party Central Committee and the State Council are gradually emerging, and both production and market demand rebounded slightly, and the production index The new orders index was 52.9% and 50.6%, respectively, up 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Second, the main raw material purchase price index was 49.4%. Although it is below the critical point, it has rebounded for 4 consecutive months. The volume index rose to 51.0% since the high point this year, and the procurement activities of enterprises have accelerated. Third, the performance of high-tech manufacturing is better than the overall level of manufacturing, indicating that the support of high-tech manufacturing in manufacturing growth and structural adjustment continues. Enhanced.
According to Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, the PMI index increased slightly in May, indicating that economic growth has stabilized. The increase in new orders and new export orders indicated that the market demand was stable; the finished goods inventory index continued to decrease, and the purchase volume index and the purchase price index continued to increase, reflecting the increase in the company's supplementary inventory activities.
According to the changes predicted by the comprehensive PMI index, Zhang Liqun said that considering the recent steady growth policies, the policy effects will continue to show up in the future, and the economic growth has been more obvious.
In addition to manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI has also become an indicator of recent market attention. In May, China's non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.2%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Since the beginning of this year, the index has been running in the range of 53.0%~54.0%, indicating that China's non-manufacturing industry has continued to maintain steady growth, and the pace of expansion in May has slowed slightly.
Zhao Qinghe said that the service industry's business activity expectation index was 59.0%, which rose for two consecutive months, indicating that enterprises are more optimistic about future industry development.
At present, the economy continues to enter the structural adjustment period, and the situation reflected by the manufacturing PMI and the non-manufacturing PMI is precisely the symptom of the mutual transformation of economic power. In terms of industrial structure, the service industry has ran "acceleration", and the trend of economic structure from industry-led to service-oriented transformation is more obvious. It is imperative to continue to implement structural adjustment.
Wang Tao, China's chief economist at UBS Securities, believes that economic rebalancing is already underway, both because of the slowdown in investment and the advancement of structural reforms. Since 2010, consumption has driven more than the actual growth rate of GDP, and has maintained steady growth. The current economic rebalancing is due to the slowdown in investment, weak external demand, and the promotion of domestic structural reforms. Looking ahead, as many industries have digested excess capacity and supported consumption policies, it is expected that consumption growth will exceed investment in the next few years.
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