The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the operation of the national economy in 2013 today. At that time, data such as gross domestic product (GDP) and income from urban and rural residents will be revealed. Experts predict that the expected target of GDP growth of more than 7.5% in 2013 is a foregone conclusion, and is expected to reach about 7.7%.
GDP in 2013 will increase by about 7.7%
In 2013, China's economic growth rate fell for two consecutive quarters, with GDP growth of 7.7% in the first quarter and 7.5% growth in the second quarter. Under the influence of a series of policy measures of steady growth and reform promotion adopted by the new government, the Chinese economy regained its upward trend in the third quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 7.8%.
"At present, the expected target of 7.5% in 2013 is a foregone conclusion, and the GDP growth rate is expected to reach 7.7%." Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said in an interview with Zhongxin.com.
Cao Yuanzheng, chief economist of Bank of China, pointed out that from the recent indicators of industrial production, credit, consumption and exports, the economy will maintain overall improvement in the fourth quarter of 2013, but due to the high base in 2012, GDP growth may be There has been a slight decline. It is estimated that the GDP for the whole year of 2013 will increase by about 7.7%, which is basically the same as in 2012.
According to the latest data, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 51.0% in December 2013, which was above the critical point for 15 consecutive months. In 2013, RMB loans increased by 8.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 687.9 billion yuan over the same period of last year; 2013 The total value of imports and exports reached 4.16 trillion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over 2012.
The "China's Macroeconomic Operation Report (2013-2014)" recently released by the Institute of Finance and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences pointed out that in 2013, China's economy bottomed out and it is expected that the annual GDP growth will be 7.7%. The report also believes that the stability of future economic operations will be improved, and the economic growth rate may even increase slightly, but it still needs effective regulation of macroeconomic policies, and seeks to balance in “stable growth, structural adjustment and reformâ€. .
GDP growth this year may be slightly better than 2013
The Central Economic Work Conference held not long ago clarified that in 2014, economic work should adhere to steady progress, reform and innovation, seize opportunities to maintain reasonable growth of GDP, promote economic restructuring, and strive to achieve economic development quality and efficiency. Will not bring the speed of sequelae.
For the economic trend in 2014, Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, pointed out that under the influence of small external demand improvement, potential growth capacity support, sustained release of reform dividends and moderate stimulus of macro policies, the Chinese economy continues to maintain medium and high-speed growth. Can be expected.
Lian Ping expects that the GDP growth rate in 2014 will be slightly better than that in 2013, and will remain at a reasonable interval of 7.5%-8%, initially estimated at around 7.8%, and the quarterly fluctuations are small, and the operation is stable throughout the year.
Lian Ping pointed out that in 2014, the world economy is expected to gradually emerge from the shadow of the international financial crisis. Overall, slightly better than 2013, exports will increase their contribution to growth; accelerate the pace of urbanization, improve export, drive manufacturing investment recovery and reform promotion. Under the general environment of service industry investment, the growth rate of investment in 2014 will be roughly the same as that of the previous year.
At the same time, policies such as promoting information consumption will be gradually effective after 2013, and the government will further increase consumption promotion. However, the policy of controlling air pollution is increasing, and more and more cities are restricting purchases of automobiles. Will affect car consumption. It is estimated that the total retail sales of consumer goods in 2014 will increase by about 13.6%, slightly higher than in 2013.
In addition, the agency's forecast for GDP growth in 2014 is generally not less than 7.5%. The Center for Prediction Science of the Chinese Academy of Sciences predicts that China's economic growth will be low and high in 2014. The annual GDP growth rate is expected to be 7.6%. The National Information Center expects China's GDP growth rate to remain around 7.5% in 2014, but it is recommended that The GDP growth target for 2014 is set at 7%.
GDP in 2013 will increase by about 7.7%
In 2013, China's economic growth rate fell for two consecutive quarters, with GDP growth of 7.7% in the first quarter and 7.5% growth in the second quarter. Under the influence of a series of policy measures of steady growth and reform promotion adopted by the new government, the Chinese economy regained its upward trend in the third quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 7.8%.
"At present, the expected target of 7.5% in 2013 is a foregone conclusion, and the GDP growth rate is expected to reach 7.7%." Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said in an interview with Zhongxin.com.
Cao Yuanzheng, chief economist of Bank of China, pointed out that from the recent indicators of industrial production, credit, consumption and exports, the economy will maintain overall improvement in the fourth quarter of 2013, but due to the high base in 2012, GDP growth may be There has been a slight decline. It is estimated that the GDP for the whole year of 2013 will increase by about 7.7%, which is basically the same as in 2012.
According to the latest data, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 51.0% in December 2013, which was above the critical point for 15 consecutive months. In 2013, RMB loans increased by 8.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 687.9 billion yuan over the same period of last year; 2013 The total value of imports and exports reached 4.16 trillion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over 2012.
The "China's Macroeconomic Operation Report (2013-2014)" recently released by the Institute of Finance and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences pointed out that in 2013, China's economy bottomed out and it is expected that the annual GDP growth will be 7.7%. The report also believes that the stability of future economic operations will be improved, and the economic growth rate may even increase slightly, but it still needs effective regulation of macroeconomic policies, and seeks to balance in “stable growth, structural adjustment and reformâ€. .
GDP growth this year may be slightly better than 2013
The Central Economic Work Conference held not long ago clarified that in 2014, economic work should adhere to steady progress, reform and innovation, seize opportunities to maintain reasonable growth of GDP, promote economic restructuring, and strive to achieve economic development quality and efficiency. Will not bring the speed of sequelae.
For the economic trend in 2014, Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, pointed out that under the influence of small external demand improvement, potential growth capacity support, sustained release of reform dividends and moderate stimulus of macro policies, the Chinese economy continues to maintain medium and high-speed growth. Can be expected.
Lian Ping expects that the GDP growth rate in 2014 will be slightly better than that in 2013, and will remain at a reasonable interval of 7.5%-8%, initially estimated at around 7.8%, and the quarterly fluctuations are small, and the operation is stable throughout the year.
Lian Ping pointed out that in 2014, the world economy is expected to gradually emerge from the shadow of the international financial crisis. Overall, slightly better than 2013, exports will increase their contribution to growth; accelerate the pace of urbanization, improve export, drive manufacturing investment recovery and reform promotion. Under the general environment of service industry investment, the growth rate of investment in 2014 will be roughly the same as that of the previous year.
At the same time, policies such as promoting information consumption will be gradually effective after 2013, and the government will further increase consumption promotion. However, the policy of controlling air pollution is increasing, and more and more cities are restricting purchases of automobiles. Will affect car consumption. It is estimated that the total retail sales of consumer goods in 2014 will increase by about 13.6%, slightly higher than in 2013.
In addition, the agency's forecast for GDP growth in 2014 is generally not less than 7.5%. The Center for Prediction Science of the Chinese Academy of Sciences predicts that China's economic growth will be low and high in 2014. The annual GDP growth rate is expected to be 7.6%. The National Information Center expects China's GDP growth rate to remain around 7.5% in 2014, but it is recommended that The GDP growth target for 2014 is set at 7%.
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