Monoammonium phosphate rebound has not yet arrived

From the time point of view, domestic compound fertilizer has entered the traditional peak season, but from the market point of view, taking the goods is not ideal, the dealers to take more with the use of the way to sell, in previous years this time a large-scale fertilizer preparation scene is very difficult to see this year It is expected that the turning point for the domestic compound fertilizer market will come in September. Affected by this, the recent monoammonium phosphate has not ushered in the expected rebound, and it has been in a downtrend or low position. Most dealers are in a wait-and-see attitude. At present, the mainstream price of 55% ammonium phosphate is about 2550 yuan (t price, the same below), and 58% of powder ammonium is in the range of 2800-2850 yuan. According to analysis, in the short term, monoammonium phosphate will maintain stability at a low level and the price will rebound weakly.

In July, the price of monoammonium phosphate began to fluctuate, and it was difficult to take the goods due to the two-sided pressure of weak exports and insufficient domestic fertilizer demand. In August, the start-up of downstream compound fertilizer companies has just resumed. The average operating rate is 45% to 50%, and there is a small amount of inventory in the early period. Therefore, the enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is still low.

“Some southern provinces continued to suffer from continuous drought, resulting in crop reductions or harvests. 'Steaming' dried a portion of the compound fertilizer market; later, many countries in the country were hit by storms and floods, unable to plant seeds, and reduced the amount of compound fertilizer.” Hubei Maosheng Bio-limited The company’s Purchasing Department Manager Yu Xianjia said.

Although the compound fertilizer manufacturers continued to offer some preferential policies, but the dealers lack of confidence in the market outlook, not much money in advance, wait and see mood is strong, the actual stock volume less than in previous years. Due to limited funds from compound fertilizer manufacturers, a small number of manufacturers have withdrawn funds and reduced the factory price of compound fertilizers. At present, the mainstream factory price of 45%* compound fertilizer is 2,730-2,850 yuan, and the mainstream factory price of 45% chlorine-based compound fertilizer is 2,550-2,650 yuan.

Exports are not ideal this year. Although it is currently in the compound fertilizer window period, the international market price quotation cannot be accepted by domestic compound fertilizer companies. Set price and FOB prices will be inverted, and exports will mean losses. In addition, binary compound fertilizer is no longer this year. Due to the strong export of binary compound fertilizer last year, the quality of binary compound fertilizers in India has become stricter. Last year's qualified products could not be exported this year, which also led to the inability of many domestic compound fertilizer manufacturers to digest through exports.

At the same time, the cost of monoammonium phosphate cannot support the market rebound. The reporter learned that phosphate ore, yellow as the main raw material for the production of monoammonium phosphate, presently presents a situation where demand is flat and transactions are deserted.

For the market, Wang Jianguo, general manager of Shandong Heze City Jiahe Agricultural Assets Co., Ltd., believes that the ex-factory price of 55% ammonium fenthionate on the market has dropped to about 2550 yuan. This price is basically the bottom line for SMEs. These companies are already on the verge of profit and loss. Hey. At present, monoammonium phosphate is mainly exported, but the situation is not optimistic. In the domestic market, due to the low utilization rate of compound fertilizer plants, the market's demand for monoammonium phosphate is limited, and dealers and compound fertilizer producers are waiting to take a wait-and-see attitude. In the short term, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market will not significantly improve. It is expected that the large-scale production of compound fertilizer enterprises will be postponed to around September. By then, due to the low market inventories and the increase in the price of diammonium phosphate, domestic supply and demand may experience local tension, and monoammonium phosphate prices may rise slightly.

"At present, the overall low level of monoammonium phosphate is stable, and the upstream market has gradually stabilized. Downstream compound fertilizer companies have also started to resume construction. There is little room for price decline. If this round of fertilizer preparation in the fall brings a small amount of rigid demand, then monoammonium phosphate or If the market is still in good shape, plans to reduce production, repairs, and light storage will also be put on the agenda ahead of schedule.” said Liu Hongbing, deputy director of sales for Hubei Maosheng Biotechnology Co., Ltd., “However, as a seasonal fertilizer, The demand for rigid products still exists, and it is important whether there is market support to balance supply and demand. Overall, monoammonium phosphate has a tendency to recover in the later period, but the rebound has been weak recently.”