As of June 3, looking back at the domestic and foreign urea market is already at a high price. Judging from the limited price information, FOB prices for international-sized granular urea rose by more than US$100/ton in two months (mainly in Yuri). And this momentum does not seem to stop.
With such a steady upward trend, will China's urea exporters have opportunities?
First, the international urea prices rose by more than $100 per ton per month. According to monitoring by related agencies, the international small-particle urea FOB price began to rise steadily when it touched the $300/ton price point. The strong purchasing power of international buyers may come from agricultural demand. For major food-producing countries such as India, Brazil and the United States, there are stocking cycles for new seeding and fertilizer preparations. Under the background of the continuous decline in international urea prices in the previous period, the overhaul of international companies will also be the main thrust to ease supply pressure.
At present, the rising global food prices have stimulated the enthusiastic enthusiasm of farmers in various countries to grow grain and the use of chemical fertilizers. As a result, the prosperous urea supply market has been active all of a sudden.
However, after the end of June, the planting work in various countries will basically come to an end, and market demand will further weaken. The momentum of continuing to drive up the market through top-dressing will also be slightly insufficient. In particular, the world faces the issue of the opening of the Chinese export window in July.
Second, in recent years, the international urea prices are also changing into the "difficult season"
From the limited data in recent years, the international small-particle urea FOB price is 220 US dollars / ton, 300 US dollars / ton for the two relatively strong bottom support. The special market in 2008 pushed the international urea price to a high of nearly $900/tonne, followed by a plummeting price return process.
Under the influence of the financial crisis, the price fell to a relative low of around 220 U.S. dollars per ton, followed by the dispersal of the shadow of the global economic crisis. Urea prices have gradually staged a slow upward trend under the continued expectations of demand growth.
From the beginning of 2009, the characteristics of the non-light season and the prosperous season have gradually emerged. Whether in China or in other countries in the world, it has become our common pursuit to rise and fall, and this situation has occurred in the context of China’s apparent export.
Third, China's July export window opportunities still exist?
According to the history of the same period in recent years, the urea prices in April-June showed stable fluctuations, and there was no significant fluctuation. International urea prices in April-June this year appear to be repeating the 2008 route. Based on the fact that international prices have now completed the two-month rise process, the opportunities for the Chinese market will be gradually reduced in the future.
According to the calculation of the upswing of up to three months in 2008, the international urea-strength cattle pattern will reach its peak in June and begin to oscillate. However, China has not yet reached the period of change in the export window, so it is feared that China will catch up to the last train after entering the international market in the future.
Looking at the global economic situation, the economy is slowly recovering and the growth rate of emerging economies is slowing down. Consumer demand is suppressed at high prices. However, the inflation situation seems to be the problem that needs to be solved more urgently in the present. In turn, market demand and consumption will show a rational trend.
The overall global urea capacity is abundant, and phased shutdown and overhaul have become the main means to ease the market. In addition, in the first two years of continuous operation of urea-injured, the behavior of large-scale reserve dealers is weakening, and this year's urea market shows a pattern of rising prices in the fertilizer season. This is also a rational return of peak season demand.
With such a steady upward trend, will China's urea exporters have opportunities?
First, the international urea prices rose by more than $100 per ton per month. According to monitoring by related agencies, the international small-particle urea FOB price began to rise steadily when it touched the $300/ton price point. The strong purchasing power of international buyers may come from agricultural demand. For major food-producing countries such as India, Brazil and the United States, there are stocking cycles for new seeding and fertilizer preparations. Under the background of the continuous decline in international urea prices in the previous period, the overhaul of international companies will also be the main thrust to ease supply pressure.
At present, the rising global food prices have stimulated the enthusiastic enthusiasm of farmers in various countries to grow grain and the use of chemical fertilizers. As a result, the prosperous urea supply market has been active all of a sudden.
However, after the end of June, the planting work in various countries will basically come to an end, and market demand will further weaken. The momentum of continuing to drive up the market through top-dressing will also be slightly insufficient. In particular, the world faces the issue of the opening of the Chinese export window in July.
Second, in recent years, the international urea prices are also changing into the "difficult season"
From the limited data in recent years, the international small-particle urea FOB price is 220 US dollars / ton, 300 US dollars / ton for the two relatively strong bottom support. The special market in 2008 pushed the international urea price to a high of nearly $900/tonne, followed by a plummeting price return process.
Under the influence of the financial crisis, the price fell to a relative low of around 220 U.S. dollars per ton, followed by the dispersal of the shadow of the global economic crisis. Urea prices have gradually staged a slow upward trend under the continued expectations of demand growth.
From the beginning of 2009, the characteristics of the non-light season and the prosperous season have gradually emerged. Whether in China or in other countries in the world, it has become our common pursuit to rise and fall, and this situation has occurred in the context of China’s apparent export.
Third, China's July export window opportunities still exist?
According to the history of the same period in recent years, the urea prices in April-June showed stable fluctuations, and there was no significant fluctuation. International urea prices in April-June this year appear to be repeating the 2008 route. Based on the fact that international prices have now completed the two-month rise process, the opportunities for the Chinese market will be gradually reduced in the future.
According to the calculation of the upswing of up to three months in 2008, the international urea-strength cattle pattern will reach its peak in June and begin to oscillate. However, China has not yet reached the period of change in the export window, so it is feared that China will catch up to the last train after entering the international market in the future.
Looking at the global economic situation, the economy is slowly recovering and the growth rate of emerging economies is slowing down. Consumer demand is suppressed at high prices. However, the inflation situation seems to be the problem that needs to be solved more urgently in the present. In turn, market demand and consumption will show a rational trend.
The overall global urea capacity is abundant, and phased shutdown and overhaul have become the main means to ease the market. In addition, in the first two years of continuous operation of urea-injured, the behavior of large-scale reserve dealers is weakening, and this year's urea market shows a pattern of rising prices in the fertilizer season. This is also a rational return of peak season demand.