Many indicators in the real estate industry have fallen sharply. The industry is undergoing a major change in the nature of reshuffle.

Guide: For the first seven months of real estate-related operational statistics, the industry's proposed trend is different. However, in the 21st century economic report, the reporters in the real estate industry deeply felt their sense of crisis. Under the overall industry profit rate decline, financing difficulties and the real estate industry innovation and development issues, the real estate industry is undergoing a major change in the nature of reshuffle.
On August 14th, Lin Feng, president of Xuhui Group, published an article on his official WeChat title entitled "Being Born, and Diening in Anle".
In this article, Lin Feng expressed his strong sense of crisis as the helm of the real estate enterprise. "Behind all kinds of good news, we should be soberly aware that the macroeconomic growth is slowing down, the financial capital level is getting tighter, the regulatory policies and long-term mechanisms are gradually increasing, sales and land markets are gradually getting colder, and competitors. More powerful... In the future, it doesn't seem to leave us too much time and space."
Lin Feng only truly expressed his feelings about the status quo of housing enterprises. On August 14, the National Bureau of Statistics released data on real estate from January to July. Overall, most of the indicators have experienced a significant decline, in which the cumulative growth rate of sales area and amount has dropped to a new low and a low of nearly one year, respectively, at 14% and 18.9%. More than 40%; real estate development investment growth rate fell for three consecutive months, the growth rate from January to July fell to 7.9%, down 1.9 percentage points from the highest point of this year, and the monthly growth rate hit a new low in the year. In addition, the growth rate of new construction area in a single month also turned negative to -4.91% for the first time. It can be said that July this year is the month of development investment and the lowest starting of new construction.
Ding Zuyu, CEO of E-House (China) Enterprise Group, even asserted that from a macro perspective, several major indicators of the industry have begun to turn down, and the turning point of the industry has been revealed.

The decline of multiple indicators The macro data released by the National Bureau of Statistics has certain guiding significance for the real estate industry.
Ding Zuyu believes that throughout the trend of real estate indicators this year, the first four months of climbing all the way, the first adjustment occurred in May, followed by some data continued to decline in June and July, only sales data appeared in June blowout, but quickly fell back in July . The reason is that he believes that the adjustment has been closely related to the implementation of regulation and control in May and the first half of the year. This year's macroeconomic regulation and control is still gradually promoted step by step and sub-city. The relatively intensive wave is from the beginning of the Spring Festival. Nearly 60 cities have introduced or over-regulated policies, especially the restriction on sales as a new means of regulation. Joined the market in the quarter. Judging from past experience, the effect of the policy introduction to the market generally lags behind for three months. Therefore, it is reasonable for the industry to adjust from May.
In his view, the industry turning point has been revealed.
For Ding Zuyu's judgment, the industry also has different views. Yang Hongxu, deputy dean of the Yiju Research Institute, believes that the decline in sales growth throughout the market began in April last year. After the peak of the growth in April last year, the market experienced a shocking decline, which is the law of short-term market fluctuations. Yang Hongxu estimates that the growth rate of market sales at the end of this year may be negative. In 2017, the area growth in 2016 may fall slightly, about 5%. The change in investment is related to new construction and land supply, and the proportion of new construction will be greater.
Yang Hongxu believes that the current national market is still generally active, but the general trend is narrowing the growth rate. Among them, the volume of first- and second-tier cities has dropped significantly, while the third- and fourth-tier cities have lagged behind because of the relative lag of rotation. At present, it cannot be said that the turning point of the real estate market has been clarified, because at present, only the shrinking of the volume of transactions and the increase in the volume of transactions have fallen. When the price of 70% of the houses has risen and fallen from the previous month, it can accurately determine the turning point of the property market.
Regarding the decline in many indicators in the real estate market, Ouyang Jie, senior vice president of Xincheng Holding Group Co., Ltd., considered “very normal”. He said that in the past few years, the land acquisition area of ​​housing enterprises has been declining year by year, which has led to a decline in the area of ​​construction and a decline in investment. However, at present, the decline in the indicator is only a decline in growth rate. This does not mean that investment and new construction area will decline. In addition, the first- and second-tier cities control the population size, which subjectively restricts or reduces the supply of land; and objectively, there is no land supply in the core area. Only the demolition is required to supply, but the cost of demolition is high and the pace is slow.
Ouyang Jie noted that, unlike the sharp decline in land supply in the previous two years, land supply has been in a “recovery-type growth” since 2017. But he believes that the “recovery growth” of land supply will not last long. He expects the land supply growth rate to become single digits by the end of this year. As with land supply, the number of single-digit growth includes new construction area, transaction area, mortgage loan and investment growth rate.

The sense of urgency of housing enterprises as an industry involving multiple factors, the industry's judgment on the real estate industry has always been divided. However, some rational and predictive people in the industry have already had a strong sense of crisis.
For the market trend in the third and fourth quarters, Ding Zuyu believes that the pressure will be further highlighted. The risk of sales cooling cannot be ignored. In particular, if the third- and fourth-line investment demand is not further followed up, the partial pressure of the third- and fourth-tier markets in the first half of the year will be Rapid outbreaks, which in turn affected the sales of the real estate market throughout the year. Therefore, enterprises should be cautious in the current market, not only pay attention to the crisis brought by the policy regulation to the enterprise itself, but also the risks brought by the overheating of the short-term market in the city.
Lin Feng said in the aforementioned article, "Bill Gates said that Microsoft is only 18 months away from bankruptcy. Xuhui is far worse than Microsoft, so we should be closer to bankruptcy. To survive. To live better and longer, we should come out of the comfort zone, reflect and sum up to deal with the more difficult and dangerous road."
Recently, 21st Century Business Herald reporters also deeply felt their sense of crisis in their exchanges with the real estate industry. The decline in profit margins across the industry, financing difficulties and innovation and development discussions in the real estate industry have become hot topics in the current industry.
But it is undeniable that the real estate industry is undergoing a major change in the nature of reshuffle.
Ouyang Jie said that the market concentration of the market has now exceeded expectations, and the market cake will not become bigger. The real brutal competition in the industry may not yet come. According to his analysis, the sales of the top three strong houses in 2016 reached about 1.05 trillion yuan, the total sales of 4-9 real estate enterprises was about 105 million, and the sales of 10-23 real estate enterprises were also about 105 million. The name of the real estate enterprise accounted for 26.8% of the market share. In the first half of this year, the market share of these real estate enterprises has once again increased to 36.3%, and it is expected to reach 40% by the end of this year. It is likely to occupy half of the market next year. But the market cake has not grown, so the next step must be "the competition for you to live and die."
For the upcoming fierce competition, Ouyang Jie believes that large-scale housing enterprises will continue to accelerate, until the big fish eat small fish, the market pattern is basically stable. "The days of medium-sized housing enterprises will be very sad." Ouyang Jie said that this type of housing enterprises are likely to be acquired in the future. Because the company has a certain scale, it is difficult to withdraw from the industry, and it may continue to lose money without exiting. "It’s not a bad thing to be acquired. It seems to have lost face, but it has saved the inside."
Chen Kai, founder and CEO of Shanghai Puyue Asset Management Co., Ltd., believes that there will be four business directions in the future real estate industry: investment companies, service companies, asset management companies, and development companies. Light assets want to be bigger, and the proportion of assets is more difficult. In the future, there will be many small development companies in China. The way out for medium-sized enterprises is to either be an industry leader, a regional leader, a market leader, or a small, beautiful company.
For the company's "survival", the famous economist Xu Xiaonian's suggestion is: "The decisive factor of the company's life and death is the unique advantage that you can't imitate. This is called core competitiveness. So, in the future, corporate thinking is not someone else's ability. I can do what I do, but think about what others can't do. I can do it."
Xu Xiaonian said that transformation in his own industry is the road to survival, but the change is to find death, to change their business methods in the most familiar industry. Make full use of the accumulation in the industry to think about new business models, new technologies, and new products.

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